The Future is Now

The Blue Jays have reached agreement on a deal to acquire All-Star left-hander David Price in a blockbuster trade with prospects Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt heading to Detroit Tigers. Blue Jays have traded six pitching prospects this week in the Price and Tulowitzki deals. Many speculators argue that Blue Jays have given up too much in farm arms for a short rental. 

Both Price and Tulowitzki have been among the very best in the game at their respective positions and remain relative young to maintain in their prime if they can stay healthy.
 Adding Price gives Jays' rotation a significant upgrade; indeed, Price has pitched to a 2.53 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 146 innings on the year, only trailing Kershaw and Felix Hernandez in fWAR since 2010. A power lefty seldom walks anybody and goes deep into games. When it comes to evaluating and rating top prospects, many fail to notice that top prospects are doomed to fail; and as a result, they see top prospects as Major League Baseball organizations' most valuable commodity and have tendency to overestimate top prospects' long-term value and buying into the the hype surrounding them . Base on historical precedent, the real fact is that very few top prospects can reach the level of stardom. For a long period from 1990 to 2003 with a populated sample size, it is warranted and scientific consensus to conclude that about 70% of Baseball America top 100 prospects fail and pitching prospects, either RHP or LHP, have little chance to success, with high bust rate at 77.4% and 79.5% respectively. 

The most noticeable prospects of the trio moved in David Price's trade definitely is Daniel Norris. The question is that can he perform in Major League level and wind up to be the crown jewel of the haul as Tigers might believe? Baseball America ranked Norris as 18th-best prospect in baseball earlier this year in March:

Grades: Fastball: 60. Slider: 60. Curve: 50. Changeup: 60. Control: 50.

Based on 20-80 scouting scale—where 50 represents major league average—and future projection rather than present tools.

Scouting Report: Norris has a deep repertoire, and his ability to miss bats was unparalleled in the minors this year. He had the highest strikeout rate (11.8 K/9 and 32.5 percent of plate appearances) of any qualified starter in full-season ball this year, and his strikeout rate actually increased at each of his three minor league stops. His fastball velocity increased this year, sitting 91-95 mph and touching 97 as a starter. Norris’ loose, quick arm works easy and produces downhill plane from a high three-quarters arm slot, which is slightly raised from earlier in his career. He gets good extension out front, helping give his heater late riding life through the zone. His top secondary offering is a sharp, tight slider with at least plus potential that flashes plus-plus at its best. He shows feel for a changeup that also has at least plus potential, though he can get around on the pitch to give it cut-like action to his glove side. A curveball that has at least average potential and 1-7 tilt is Norris’ fourth offering, despite occasionally having a velocity difference of nearly 20 mph off his fastball. Norris threw more strikes (3.1 walks per nine) than he ever has in his career and projects for at least average control. Norris entered the system throwing significantly across his body; that has been reduced, although he still throws across his body some, offering natural deception while cutting himself off in his delivery. Norris is staying taller on his backside and has reduced the rigidity to the front side of his delivery, particularly his front leg. His posture is now more upright at release after routinely being off-balance because of his cross-body direction. Norris can still spin off to the third base side after release because of his momentum, closed landing and heel grinding, but the frequency and severity has been significantly lessened.

Norris did head up north and join Jays' rotation for a short stint when the season started, but was soon demoted to minor league with command issues, walking over four batters per nine innings. MLB.com mid-season report has downgraded Norris from Pre-season's No.17 to No.25. Is Norris' repertoire as good as advertised? In five Major League starts this season, his fastball is averaging at an unimpressive 91mph, significantly lower than what most scouts have reported, a low to mid 90s fastball with late life. My take on Norris is that he could be good, most likely to be mediocre, but certain not an elite pitcher material. The following is a more around the ballpark grading by fangraph:

Fastball	Slider	Curveball	Changeup	Command	Future Value
55 / 60	50 / 55	55 / 60	45 / 50+	45 / 50+	60

Another young pitching prospect that Jays have chipped in Tulo's deal is Jeff Hoffman. A ninth overall pick in 2014's draft. Hoffman could be great down the road in the future, but the real question is that is he an untouchable pitching prospect as many have trumpeted him to be. Only time would tell us whether Alex Anthopoulos has pressed the right button or not. As a reference and little reminder, not too long ago, Baseball America's Top 20 prospects in 2009, was leading by David Price, along with Tommy Hanson, Brett Anderson, Madison Bumgarnder, Neftali Feliz and Trevor Cahill. Only two out of six have consistently reached the level of stardom. Pairing with Donaldson, Blue Jays arguably have the best left side of the infield in business today. The biggest concern is injury, but one injury-prone for another injury-prone, but with significant offensive upgrade, what's not the like? It is important to bear in mind prospects often have the highest value before they've got their feet wet in the Major League.