How Good Is Jung Ho?

Last winter, the Pirates signed Jung Ho Kang, a fully developed 28-year-old shortstop who's coming off a career year with .346/.459/.739, 40 home runs and 117 RBIs, to a four year, $11 million contract, plus a $5 million posting fee that went to Nexen Heroes of Korea Baseball Organization. He owns a career OPS of .886. Pirates made a relative cheap investment in Kang to provide depth and options to an already solid infield. The plan behind the signing makes sense despite many were skeptical of Kang's ability to perform in Major League level:

Scouts I spoke with on Kang said he has a chance to be a nice bench bat/utility man. Posting fee reflects that.

— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) 2014 12月 22日

ZiPS has Kang at 230/299/389, 93 OPS+ in Pittsburgh. WAR depends on how the defense shakes out. If -5, it's 1.5 WAR in 498 PA.

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) 2014 12月 22日

The ZiPS was a bad guess. The updated ZiPS has Kang with .277/.348/.432,  3.6 WAR in 511 PA as today. On a side note, Kang is currently sitting at .288/.360/.443, 128 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR in 361 PA.

BA Scouting Report:

Kang had a stellar 2014 season for the Nexen Heroes in the Korea Baseball Organization. He hit .356/.459/.739 with 40 home runs, 68 walks and 106 strikeouts in 117 games, leading the KBO in slugging and OPS, ranking second in homers and OBP, and he won the gold glove at shortstop. Those numbers are lofty, but the KBO is an extreme offensive environment, and scouts were skeptical of Kang's skill set translating into an everyday role in the majors. Kang is strong and has average raw power, with a chance for 15-20 home runs if he plays every day. While he is a solid offensive player, the consensus in the international scouting community is that he won't be an everyday player. He doesn't have the range to play shortstop in the majors, with an average arm that would be less than ideal for the spot, and scouts also expressed concerns about his ability to make the routine plays. He's a better defensive fit at second or third base. Kang doesn't have a plus tool, but there's enough potential at the plate for him to be an offensive-oriented utility player who starts his U.S. career in the majors.

Pirates took an affordable risk on Kang, and it turned out to a good move. As Ben Badler put it, "Scouts I spoke with on Kang said he has chance to be a nice bench bat/utility man. Posting fee reflects that." It also somehow explains how most teams, including Pirates, have casted doubts on Kang's skill set to produce against major league caliber competition. In short, with scouts all over the world, Major League teams are very low on unproven commodity from the far east, unless a trailblazer has shattered the barriers and delivered an absolute slap in the face to all the doubters and turned them into believers.

It took Kang about a month to figure out Major League pitching. Kang's biggest adjustment on the field was to fit in as an utility man or as a bat off the bench, who plays irregularly, after being everyday All-Star shortstop in Korea. He got off to a slow smart in limited playing time back in April, through the first twenty games of season, compiling a .227/.250/.477 batting line. Below are Kang's splits by month:

April: .269/.310/.346 – 13 games, 6 starts

May: .298/.379/.464 – 23 games, 21 starts

June: .221/.310/.286 – 25 games, 17 starts

July: .379/.443/.621 – 25 games, 23 starts

It should be reasonable to suggest that Kang tended to struggle when he came off as a sub, at least for the first four months of the season. According to Jeff Sullivan from FanGraph, Kang has returned to his old form as an offensive force and improved significantly in batted ball results on FanGraph's dashboard in the month of July. 

Back in Aug 3rd, Mike Petriello of MLB.com, showed Kang has great success against the hardest pitches he has faced in term of batting average and slugging percentage:

Four-Seam fastball: .402/.650
Sinker: .279/.328

Change:.182/.182

Slider: .236/.436

Curve: .286/.500

With 30 batted balls against pitches 95 mph or more:

1. Jung Ho Kang, .485
2. Miguel Cabrera, .419

3. Daniel Murphy, .400

4. Howie Kendrick, .482

5. Jose Abreu, .462 

His power is absolutely for real, especially he has constantly showcased his ability to drive the ball to opposite field with authority. I tend to believe Kang's earlier spike in July has less or nothing to do with changing in hitting approach or as a result of luck. Due to the absences of Mercer and Harrison, Kang finally got an opportunity to start consecutively without getting benched here and there for several days at a time. I'm not saying that Kang's emerging as one of baseball's elite players, nor am I  expecting him to hit as well in August as he had in July, but he has shown enough he's able to perform against the best pitchers in the world. In a nutshell, it should be the right narrative to say that Kang has performed quite well when he plays everyday. It should be interesting to see what Hurdle would do when Harrison and Mercer return. 

As we know, it is much harder to measure defensive production and to concretely quantify a fielder's defensive ability. Not only are there very few advanced defensive metrics available, they also have trouble painting the whole picture. As today, UZR has him at -1.6 and +1 at short and third base respectively. DRS, another widely used defensive metric, Kang has a +2 at short and a  +5 at 3rd. About Kang's defense in general, it's safe to say he's at least competent with his glove.

Among shortstops or third basemen with qualified plate appearances, Kang ranks up there in wRC+(128) and wOBA(.352) with players who have been considered elite at the plate at either position in recent years, Base on his performance to date, Kang definitely is a top offensive third baseman and shortstop bat with defensive flexibility. Given more playing time, he could be a legit 20 home run infielder in his prime of career with many exciting seasons to come.