Many Tanaka's doubters often refer to a scouting report from Ben Badler of Baseball America to strengthen their arguments that Tanaka might have trouble finding success in Major League with a solid-average fastball:
"At 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, Tanaka throws a low-90s fastball that can touch 96 mph. Even though Tanaka can reach the mid-90s, his fastball is the pitch that gives some scouts pause because it comes in on a flat plane, making it more hittable than the velocity might suggest. Tanaka has two secondary pitches that have earned grades of 60 or better on the 20-80 scouting scale, including a 70 splitter with late downward action to keep hitters off his fastball. His low- to mid-80s slider is another plus weapon, while he'll mix in a curveball as well."
On the other hand, a small sample size from PITCHf/x in 2009 WBC suggests that Tanaka generated tremendous vertical movement and spin on his fastball in three short outings:
| Pitch Type | Count | Freq | MPH | H. Mvt | V. Mvt |
| Fourseam | 16 | 43.24% | 95.02 | -4.34 | 12.76 |
| Slider | 10 | 27.03% | 87.37 | 3.82 | 1.56 |
| Curve | 4 | 10.81% | 80.11 | 4.37 | -3.80 |
| Split | 7 | 18.92% | 87.84 | -5.6 | 4.64 |
Although I am not very keen on PITCHf/x, mainly because measurement errors and calibration issues, it might still generate some hypes among many illusioned PITCHf/x faithfuls. It appears that the PITCHf/x result is very contradictive to what Ben Badler has implied in his scouting report. Like many other NPB pitchers, including Darvish, Tanaka has difficulty maintaining consistent velocity over the course of a season or a game. Here is the thing about Tanaka: he can throw you two fastballs, and they can be as much as 13km/h apart in one outing.
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| 156 km/h |
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| 143 km/h |
Here is my two cents. I tend to accept the presumption that Tanaka can "command" his fastball in the low 90s with occasional heat. He will do just fine.
Tanaka throws a nasty splitter and arguably is the best in the world. He was an extreme ground-baller (58.9%) who merely surrendered any long balls (0.25 HR/9) last year in Japan. The battle to claim the right to be crowned the best splitter thrower in the game has never been fiercer, with numerous contenders, including Hisashi Iwakuma, Koji Uehara and Jeff Samardzija. Tanaka definitely has his hands full. As a reference, the Splitter Whiff/Swing rate of Samardzija and Uehara were 49.49% and 44.26% in 2013 respectively. Iwakuma had a decent Splitter Whiff/Swing rate at 31.74%, considering the fact that he adopts a more pitch-to-contact approach, Iwakuma came up with an absolutely insane splitter GB/BIP percentage at 72%. Can Tanaka top these numbers?
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| 88 mph |
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| 144 km/h |
This is what I call unhittable !!! This might be too much of an exaggeration. In most cases, Tanaka’s split-finger fastball is a swing-and-miss pitch that batters will commit to chase despite a propensity to find dirt.
Tanaka also owns a tight slider which usually sits at 131-139 km/h with late break when he has it going.
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| 138 km/h |
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| 86 mph |
It is seldom mentioned in any scouting reports. Tanaka actually features a 142-145km/h cut fastball as a weapon to get inside against lefties.
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| 143 km/h |
Tanaka frequently reminds me of a young Tim Hudson in A’s green and yellow. Both pitchers intimidate hitters with a devastating split-finger fastball capable of inducing groundball as an essential part of their game plan. Tanaka is not a phenom with can’t miss stuff like Darvish. As an evaluator, excluding cultural hurdles and flaming out factors, it is reasonable to project Tanaka as anywhere from a No.2 starter to a potential ace. Once again, as long as Tanaka can stay healthy, given the fact that pitchers tend to peak in their mid-to-late 20s, he might continue to evolve from a young talent to become one of the successful pitchers coming from Japan.
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