Scouting Myth

As a passionate amateur baseball blogger, I love to go over scouting reports of top ranked prospects with a fine tooth comb. Many scouts often claim that they have an intuitive ability to identify unpolished talents. The draft provides teams with a cost effective resource to build a successful franchise. The next question is, in an unpredictable and baffling world of projecting young baseball talents, do scouts demonstrate a strong track record on gauging future major league performance of young players?

Tanaka Not Your Ordinary Import

Masahiro Tanaka, who went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA, 2.26 FIP, 7.8 K/9, 1.36 BB/9 and 0.25 HR/9 with Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2013, is indisputably the biggest pitcher in Japan since Daisuke Matsuzaka and Yu Darvish. Over seven seasons in NPB, Tanaka compiled a 99-35 record and a 2.30 ERA with 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. According to David Golebiewski of Baseball Analytics, Tanaka has managed to post a 236 ERA+ in previous three seasons. Below is a comparison of Tanaka and other NPB pitchers:

Pittsburgh Pirates' Renaissance ─ Gerrit Cole

Gerrit Cole, Pirates’ rookie sensation, has developed into their first legitimate top-of-the-rotation pitcher since Doug Drabek. He posted a 10-7 record in 117.1 innings with a 3.22 ERA of his 19 starts. The lack of strikeouts was certainly worrisome in seven first half starts; nevertheless, it did not take long for Gerrit Cole to figure out how to translate his electric stuff into missed bats. In 12 second half starts, Cole has managed to put up a 2.72 FIP, 2.80 xFIP, 8.92 k/9, 3.95 K/BB and 25.3 K%.

The Best Thrower in KBO

Kim Kwang Hyun was one of Korea’s top pitching prospects. He had a modest pro debut after signing with Wyverns for 500 million won as a first-round pick. He went 3-7 with a 3.67 ERA in his rookie season. Immediately Sophomore Kim Kwang Hyun had put together a breakout season in his second year and established himself as top hurler in KBO. He plowed through the league with a leading 16-4 record and 150 strikeouts in 162 innings pitched, and finished second with a 2.39 ERA. In a three-year stretch from 2008 to 2010, Kim was once considered a force on the mound and seemed to have a bright future ahead of him. Since then Kim appears to be halted by a string of injuries. He has been a major disappointment in the past two seasons after pitching well in 2010. He posted a combined 12-11 record in 156 innings with a 4.56 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 4.67 BB/9. Kim’s average fastball velocity dropped from 143.6km/h in 2010 to 141.6km/h in 2012.

My Two Cents on PITCHf/x

PITCHf/x is a popular graphical analysis tool that offers great accessibility to public domain and a complementary advanced scouting system with user friendly platform which allows Sabermetric enthusiasts to manage and repurpose content and extract valuable insight to give a glimpse into the art of pitching.

The Next Great Import from Korea?

Hyun Jin Ryu’s most significant achievement might be making Korean Baseball Organization respectable in the eyes of Major League Baseball, like Hideo Nomo to Japan, when all is said and done. So who is going to be Korean’s Shigetoshi Hasegawa? My best guess is Suk Min Yoon.

Suk Min Yoon is arguably the most highly regarded right-handed pitcher in Korea today. He achieved pitcher’s triple crown in 2011 with 17 wins, a 2.45 ERA and 178 strikeouts in 172- 1/3 innings. Yoon will be eligible for free agency this off-season. If signed, he will be more likely to become the second player to make a direct jump from KBO to the majors. Yoon pitches to both sides of the of plate with a 88-92mph fastball that touches 96. Below is Yoon’s average fastball velocity from 2009 to 2012:

Was Ryu a Gamble?

Is Hyun Jin Ryu’s early-season success a surprise?  Definitely not for many KBO observers who have thoroughly followed Ryu since 2006. Ryu’s stellar performance against the Angels on 5/28 has commanded attention and recognition throughout the realm of Dodger Blue, but Korea Baseball still remains as an unknown territory for many baseball fans in North America. Ryu’s repertoire consists mainly of four pitches: a fastball, a slider, a curve, and a change-up. Below is Ryu’s pitch type data in his last KBO season: